PNAS:衰退的渔场的恢复
美国加州大学圣塔芭芭拉分校一项研究发现，通过及时的改革，世界上很多地方的衰退的渔场可以在不到10年时间里恢复。数十年的工业过度捕鱼再加上诸如沿着食物网向下捕鱼的做法，已经让全世界的海洋生态系统退化。近来的研究已经证明了同时带来可持续的渔场和经济收益的地方策略。然而，地球的海洋跨越了多种生态、文化与政治边界。为了从一个全球视角评估渔场的恢复，Christopher Costello及其同事把生物-经济模型与近来来自全世界4713个渔场——这大约占了报告的全球捕获量的78%——的数据结合起来。这组作者估计，中位的渔场总体健康不良，这是过去和正在进行的过度捕鱼导致的。此外，模型对到2050年的一切照旧的情境的预测提示，世界上的许多渔场将继续衰退。然而，这组作者提出了详细的管理改革，与一切照旧的手段相比，可能显著支撑鱼类种群并产生超过530亿美元的年利润，并且能让中位的渔场在不到10年时间里实现恢复目标。这种作者说，这些发现提供了逆转鱼类种群衰退、保护海洋食物资源以及让渔业持续的策略。
原文链接：
global fishery prospects under contrasting management regimes
原文摘要：
Data from 4,713 fisheries worldwide, representing 78% of global reported fish catch, are analyzed to estimate the status, trends, and benefits of alternative approaches to recovering depleted fisheries. For each fishery, we estimate current BioLogical status and forecast the impacts of contrasting management regimes on catch, profit, and biomass of fish in the sea. We estimate unique recovery targets and trajectories for each fishery, calculate the year-by-year effects of alternative recovery approaches, and model how alternative institutional reforms affect recovery outcomes. Current status is highly heterogeneous—the median fishery is in poor health (overfished, with further overfishing occurring), although 32% of fisheries are in good biological, although not necessarily economic, condition. Our business-as-usual scenario projects further divergence and continued collapse for many of the world’s fisheries. Applying sound management reforms to global fisheries in our dataset could GENErate annual increases exceeding 16 million metric tons (MMT) in catch, $53 billion in profit, and 619 MMT in biomass relative to business as usual. We also find that, with appropriate reforms, recovery can happen quickly, with the median fishery taking under 10 y to reach recovery targets. Our results show that commonsense reforms to fishery management would dramatically improve overall fish abundance while increasing food security and profits.
作者：Christopher Costello
