PNAS:丹麦女性的预期寿命
丹麦马克斯•普朗克衰老生物人口统计学欧登赛中心一项研究报告说，近来丹麦女性预期寿命的增加在很大程度上可以归结于在1915年到1945年出生的丹麦女性的高死亡率。丹麦女性的预期寿命在近来增加之前停滞了几十年，此前的研究提出，这种停滞大部分是由于在两次世界大战之间出生的女性的吸烟率较高。Rune Lindahl-Jacobsen及其同事比较了丹麦和瑞典以及挪威的女性死亡率趋势;后两个国家的女性人群在过去一个世纪的预期寿命趋势相对稳定。丹麦女性的总体预期寿命远远低于瑞典和挪威女性，这组作者识别出了对这种预期寿命的差异贡献最大的年龄组。这组作者发现，在1975年到2011年间，丹麦女性相比瑞典女性的预期寿命的变化的大部分可以通过1915年到1945年之间出生、尤其是在1925年到1934年间出生的丹麦女性的高死亡率加以解释。这组作者提出，与瑞典和挪威的女性相比，两次世界大战之间的那一代女性的死去导致了丹麦女性的预期寿命的更快速的增加。这项研究证明了当研究预期寿命变化的时候，纳入年龄组效应的重要性。
原文链接：
Rise, stagnation, and rise of Danish women's Life expectancy
原文摘要：
health conditions change from year to year, with a GENEral tendency in many countries for improvement. These conditions also change from one birth cohort to another: some generations suffer more adverse events in childhood, smoke more heavily, eat poorer diets, etc., than generations born earlier or later. Because it is difficult to disentangle period effects from cohort effects, demographers, epidemiologists, actuaries, and other population scientists often disagree about cohort effects’ relative importance. In particular, some advocate forecasts of life expectancy based on period trends; others favor forecasts that hinge on cohort differences. We use a combination of age decomposition and exchange of survival probabilities between countries to study the remarkable recent history of female life expectancy in Denmark, a saga of rising, stagnating, and now again rising lifespans. The gap between female life expectancy in Denmark vs. Sweden grew to 3.5 y in the period 1975–2000. When we assumed that Danish women born 1915–1945 had the same survival probabilities as Swedish women, the gap remained small and roughly constant. Hence, the lower Danish life expectancy is caused by these cohorts and is not attributable to period effects.
作者：Rune Lindahl-Jacobse
