PNAS:基于植物的饮食与气候变化
英国牛津大学一项研究量化了全世界范围食用植物食品的增加对人类健康和气候变化的收益。养活地球人口造成了全部温室气体排放的1/4以上，其中大约80%已经被归结于牲畜生产。与此同时，人们已经把富含红肉和加工过的肉的饮食与心血管疾病以及特定类型的癌症和其他疾病联系在了一起。Marco Springmann及其同事通过把一个区域特异性全球健康模型和一个近来发表的把特定食品的生产与消费和温室气体排放联系在一起的荟萃分析结合起来，评估了食用更少的动物来源食品对健康以及气候变化的收益。这组作者报告说，与联合国粮农组织对2050年的预测相比，采用符合现有饮食指南的一种基于植物的饮食——例如，纳入5种或更多的水果和蔬菜，并且限制红肉与糖——可能有潜力减少全球死亡率达10%，可能减少食物相关温室气体排放达29%到70%。这组作者说，进一步的分析揭示出了这些收益在各地理区域差异巨大，饮食变化防止了发展中国家总死亡数量的增加，但是让西方高收入和中等收入国家的人均死亡数量增加。
原文链接：
Analysis and valuation of the health and climate change cobenefits of dietary change
原文摘要：
What we eat greatly influences our personal health and the environment we all share. Recent analyses have highlighted the likely dual health and environmental benefits of reducing the fraction of animal-sourced foods in our diets. Here, we couple for the first time, to our knowledge, a region-specific global health model based on dietary and weight-related risk factors with emissions accounting and economic valuation modules to quantify the linked health and environmental consequences of dietary changes. We find that the impacts of dietary changes toward less meat and more plant-based diets vary greatly among regions. The largest absolute environmental and health benefits result from diet shifts in developing countries whereas western high-income and middle-income countries gain most in per capita terms. Transitioning toward more plant-based diets that are in line with standard dietary guidelines could reduce global mortality by 6–10% and food-related greenhouse gas emissions by 29–70% compared with a reference scenario in 2050. We find that the monetized value of the improvements in health would be comparable with, or exceed, the value of the environmental benefits although the exact valuation method used considerably affects the estimated amounts. Overall, we estimate the economic benefits of improving diets to be 1–31 trillion US dollars, which is equivalent to 0.4–13% of global gross domestic product (GDP) in 2050. However, significant changes in the global food system would be necessary for regional diets to match the dietary patterns studied here.
作者：Marco Springmann
