PNAS:非洲狮种群的衰退

摘要 : 英国牛津大学科研人员报告了整个非洲的狮种群的衰退。狮种群在地区尺度上随着时间推移的变化难以估计，这在很大程度上是由于缺乏来自许多国家的可靠数据以及不一致的重复调查。


英国牛津大学科研人员报告了整个非洲的狮种群的衰退。狮种群在地区尺度上随着时间推移的变化难以估计，这在很大程度上是由于缺乏来自许多国家的可靠数据以及不一致的重复调查。Hans Bauer及其同事汇编了自从1990年以来对狮种群的可靠的重复调查，覆盖了47个狮种群，并且使用一个统计模型估计每个种群的增长率。这些数据揭示出了非洲中西部几乎所有狮种群的急剧衰退，而且这个区域在整体上也很可能在未来20年失去一半的狮。东非的种群也在衰退，这组作者估计在未来20年东非失去其一半的狮的可能性是37%。在博茨瓦纳、纳米比亚、南非和津巴布韦等非洲南部国家，多数狮种群是在有围栏的保护区内，种群看上去正在增加，这提示了资助充分、管理良好的保护区对于维持狮种群的重要性。这些结果还提示，可以把狮定为西非的区域性极危物种和东非的区域性濒危物种。这组作者说，狮在非洲许多地区的迅速消失提示了一种重大的生态变化，而狮不再充当的顶级捕食者的角色。

原文链接：

Lion (Panthera leo) populations are declining rapidly across Africa, except in intensively managed areas

原文摘要：

We compiled all credible repeated lion surveys and present time series data for 47 lion (Panthera leo) populations. We used a Bayesian state spAce model to estimate growth rate-λ for each population and summed these into three regional sets to provide conservation-relevant estimates of trends since 1990. We found a striking geographical pattern: African lion populations are declining everywhere, except in four southern countries (Botswana, Namibia, South Africa, and Zimbabwe). Population models indicate a 67% chance that lions in West and Central Africa decline by one-half, while estimating a 37% chance that lions in East Africa also decline by one-half over two decades. We recommend separate regional assessments of the lion in the World Conservation Union (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species: already recognized as critically endangered in West Africa, our analysis supports listing as regionally endangered in Central and East Africa and least concern in southern Africa. Almost all lion populations that historically exceeded ∼500 individuals are declining, but lion conservation is successful in southern Africa, in part because of the proLiferation of reintroduced lions in small, fenced, intensively managed, and funded reserves. If management budgets for wild lands cannot keep pace with mounting levels of threat, the species may rely increasingly on these southern African areas and may no longer be a flagship species of the once vast natural ecosystems across the rest of the continent.

doi: 10.1073/PNAS.1500664112

作者：Hans Bauer

;