科学通报:清华大学宫鹏研究组发表气候变化威胁中国保护鸟类文
近期《science bulletin》发表由清华大学地球系统科学研究中心李雪艳的一篇名为“预测气候变化对中国保护鸟类和自然保护区的影响”的研究文章，李雪艳为第一作者，宫鹏教授为通讯作者。
近年来多项研究表明，以气候变暖为特征的全球变化将会将对陆地和海洋生态系统产生巨大的影响。气候的改变迫使物种去寻找新的适宜生境，从而造成物种分布范围的变化，引起保护区保护效力的下降，甚至增加物种灭绝的风险。中国是世界生物多样性大国，但目前探索气候变化对保护鸟类的潜在影响的相关工作还较少。
最近一项研究使用观鸟数据对多种保护鸟类的未来生境进行预测，评估了气候变化对我国保护区的影响。研究利用观鸟数据作为数据来源，通过建立物种分布模型(species distribution model, SDM)，预测了在不同气候变化情景下的多种保护鸟类的未来潜在分布范围及其变化。结果表明: 有多种保护鸟类的气候适宜分布区将发生收缩和北移;到2080年，平均北移距离将达到77-90km;我国的东南部地区，保护鸟类丰富度将会下降;青藏高原和东北地区则会对更多的保护鸟类更加适宜。
此外，该研究还评估了气候变化对中国自然保护区的影响，表明大部分自然保护区的保护效力都将受到气候变化的影响而下降。这为未来保护区的建设和选址提出了新要求——即必须考虑气候变化的因素.
原文链接：
Projected impacts of climate change on protected birds and Nature reserves in China
原文摘要：
Knowledge about climate change impacts on species distribution at national scale is critical to biodiversity conservation and design of management programs. Although China is a biodiversity hot spot in the world, potential influence of climate change on Chinese protected birds is rarely studied. Here, we assess the impact of climate change on 108 protected bird species and nature reserves using species distribution modeling at a relatively fine spatial resolution (1 km) for the first time. We found that a large proportion of protected species would have potential suitABLe habitat shrink and northward range shift by 77–90 km in response to projected future climate change in 2080. Southeastern China would suffer from losing climate suitability, whereas the climate conditions in Qinghai–Tibet Plateau and northeastern China were projected to become suitable for more protected species. On average, each protected area in China would experience a decline of suitable climate for 3–4 species by 2080. Climate change will modify which species each protected area will be suitable for. Our results showed that the risk of extinction for Chinese protected birds would be high, even in the moderate climate change scenario. These findings indicate that the management and design of nature reserves in China must take climate change into consideration.
DOI:10.1007/s11434-015-0892-y
作者：宫鹏
