PNAS：海洋的塑料碎片对海鸟的影响

摘要 : 澳大利亚联邦科学与工业研究组织海洋与大气旗舰一项研究发现，海洋的塑料碎片可能对大多数海鸟物种构成一种风险，特别是在澳大利亚东南部的塔斯曼海。

澳大利亚联邦科学与工业研究组织海洋与大气旗舰一项研究发现，海洋的塑料碎片可能对大多数海鸟物种构成一种风险，特别是在澳大利亚东南部的塔斯曼海。海洋中塑料碎片的存在不断增加，这给野生生物带来了一种风险。为了量化对海鸟的这种风险，Chris Wilcox及其同事使用碎片的分布以及186种海鸟物种的已知范围，进行了一项空间风险分析，然后用在1962年到2012年之间进行的关于塑料摄取的研究调整了这个模型。根据这些研究，在59%的海鸟物种体内发现了摄取的塑料，这组作者估计，如果今天进行同样的研究，受影响的物种的数量可能达到90%。塑料摄取的多数变化可以归结于身体尺寸、觅食策略以及暴露在塑料中的程度。这个空间风险模型发现，潜在影响最高的区域可能是在澳大利亚与新西兰之间的塔斯曼海。这组作者说，这些结果提示，到2050年，塑料可能影响全部海鸟物种的至多99%，而通过有效的废物管理减少塑料流进入海洋可能缓解这种风险。

原文链接：

Threat of plastic pollution to seABIrds is global, pervasive, and increasing

原文摘要：

Plastic pollution in the ocean is a global concern; concentrations reach 580,000 pieces per km2 and production is increasing exponentially. Although a large number of empirical studies provide emerging evidence of impacts to wildLife, there has been little systematic assessment of risk. We performed a spatial risk analysis using predicted debris distributions and ranges for 186 seabird species to model debris exposure. We adjusted the model using published data on plastic ingestion by seabirds. Eighty of 135 (59%) species with studies reported in the literature between 1962 and 2012 had ingested plastic, and, within those studies, on average 29% of individuals had plastic in their gut. Standardizing the data for time and species, we estimate the ingestion rate would reach 90% of individuals if these studies were conducted today. Using these results from the literature, we tuned our risk model and were able to capture 71% of the variation in plastic ingestion based on a model including exposure, time, study method, and body size. We used this tuned model to predict risk across seabird species at the global scale. The highest area of expected impact occurs at the Southern Ocean boundary in the Tasman Sea between Australia and New Zealand, which contrasts with previous work identifying this area as having low anthropogenic pressures and concentrations of marine debris. We predict that plastics ingestion is increasing in seabirds, that it will reach 99% of all species by 2050, and that effective waste management can reduce this threat.

doi: 10.1073/PNAS.1502108112

作者：Chris Wilcox

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