PNAS:浙大学者发表中国活性氮研究

在1980年到2010年间，中国的活性氮流量显著增加，技术改进和政策管理可能导致未来没有净增加或者可能减少。作为一种农业资源和环境污染物，活性氮在粮食生产和环境影响方面起到了一个突出的作用。Xiaotang Ju 及其同事使用来自1980年和2010年的数据构建了中国的活性氮收支情况，并且考虑到了自然和人为的来源。这组作者发现，在1980年到2010年间，人类活动产生的活性氮生产增加到了将近原来的3倍，而流向大气和水的氮流量分别增加到了原来的3倍和4倍。这组作者预测，到2050年，在缺少政策变化或消费者趋势变化的情况下，人类活动产生的活性氮生产率可能比2010年加倍，而纳入了饮食变化、有效的氮利用以及氮回收的一个情景可能把氮流失和活性氮的制造分别限制在2010年水平的52%和64%。这组作者说，这种氮利用的变化可能对粮食保障有贡献，同时有益于人类福利以及环境健康。

原文链接:

Integrated reactive nitrogen budgets and future trends in China

原文摘要：

Reactive nitrogen (Nr) plays a central role in food production, and at the same time it can be an important pollutant with substantial effects on air and water quality, biological diversity, and human health. China now creates far more Nr than any other country. We developed a budget for Nr in China in 1980 and 2010, in which we evaluated the natural and anthropogenic creation of Nr, losses of Nr, and transfers among 14 subsystems within China. Our analyses demonstrated that a tripling of anthropogenic Nr creation was associated with an even more rapid increase in Nr fluxes to the atmosphere and hydrosphere, contributing to intense and increasing threats to human health, the sustainability of croplands, and the environment of China and its environs. Under a business as usual scenario, anthropogenic Nr creation in 2050 would more than double compared with 2010 levels, whereas a scenario that combined reasonable changes in diet, N use efficiency, and N recycling could reduce N losses and anthropogenic Nr creation in 2050 to 52% and 64% of 2010 levels, respectively. Achieving reductions in Nr creation (while simultaneously increasing food production and offsetting imports of animal feed) will require much more in addition to good science, but it is useful to know that there are pathways by which both food security and health/environmental protection could be enhanced simultaneously.

doi: 10.1073/PNAS.1510211112

作者：Baojing Gu