基于Hybrid-Maize模型的河北省山前平原夏玉米34年来的产量潜力评价-以河北栾城为例
研究气候变化对作物生产的影响，对于保障国家粮食安全具有重要意义。本研究应用Hybrid-Maize模型分析了1984-2017年气候变化对山前平原区上世纪80年代品种与当前主栽品种产量潜力的影响。结果表明：上世纪80年代品种的产量潜力平均为10.89 t/hm2，目前主栽品种的产量潜力平均为16.22 t/hm2，较上世纪80年代品种提升了48.9%。在此期间，研究区域气温呈增加趋势，上世纪80年代品种全生育期增温幅度为0.22 ℃/10a，当前主栽玉米品种增温幅度为0.69 ℃/10a，温度每升高1 ℃，上世纪80年代玉米品种和当前品种的产量潜力分别下降0.638 t/hm2和0.591 t/hm2；两个时代夏玉米品种的生育期太阳辐射总量从1984-1994年呈下降趋势，1994-2017年呈波动维持的状况，太阳辐射每下降100 MJ/m2，上世纪80年代品种产量潜力下降0.33 t/hm2，当前主栽品种下降0.48 t/hm2；降雨量呈增加趋势，但玉米产量与降雨量间没有显著的相关关系。生产上可以通过选用长生育期、耐高温品种等方式减少气候变化对产量潜力的影响。总体来看，1984-2017年间气候变化对两个年代玉米品种的减产幅度分别为16.81%和25.90%，当前品种的产量潜力更容易受到受气候变化的影响。
英文摘要:
Understanding the impacts of climate change on crop yield is important for taking effective adaptations for national food security. In this research, Hybrid-Maize model was used to evaluate the yield potential changes in 1984-2017 on the Piedmont plain of Hebei Province. The model simulated results showed the averaged yield potential for variety of 1980s was 10.89 t/hm2, while the current used variety was 16.22 t/hm2, increased about 48.9%. A warming trend in the maize growth period was found, the average temperature increasing by 0.22 ℃/10a for variety in 1980s, and 0.69 ℃/10a for current used variety. When the temperature increase 1℃, the yield potential for varieties of 1980s and current used will decrease 0.638 t/hm2 and 0.591 t/hm2, respectively. The total solar radiation for the two maize varieties’ growth period have the trend of decreasing from 1984 to 1994, and then have the trend of up and down fluctuations and keeping as a plateau in1994-2017. When the total solar radiation decreased 100 MJ/m2, the yield for variety 1980s and current used will dreased 0.33 t/hm2 and 0.48 t/hm2, respectively. The maize growth period precipitation has the trend of increasing, but there was no significant correlations between yield potential with rainfall. The climate change effects on maize yield potential could be improved by changing varieties with longer growth periods and high temperature resistance. In general, the climate change in 1984-2017 significantly decreased the yield potential for both varieties of 1980s and current used, the yield decreasing rate was about 16.81% and 25.90%, respectively. The yield potential of current used maize variety was more sensitive to the climate change.
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