国际玉米价格波动对国内玉米价格的冲击—基于STR2模型的实证分析
本文以2000年1月到2017年8月国内外玉米现货价格月度数据为实证基础,选择STR2对国内外玉米现货价格联动的非线性特征进行实证分析。测度得到价格波动传导机制转化的临界阈值为C1=-0.10584,C2=-0.0924, γ=1.91814,根据平滑转化机制及其阈值,将连续平滑转化的国内外玉米价格波动传导效应分解为三种不同影响机制。结果表明：当国内玉米价格发生大幅波动时，国际玉米价格波动对国内玉米价格的冲击存在显著的非线性特征，且由线性冲击向非线性冲击的转化过程具有连续平滑的特点；随着国内玉米价格波动幅度的不断扩大，国际玉米价格波动对国内玉米价格的冲击越发严重，滞后期也更长，国内玉米价格受自身波动的影响不断弱化。在此基础上，提出平抑我国玉米价格波动的政策启示。
英文摘要:
In this paper, we use the monthly data of domestic and foreign corn spot prices from January 2000 to August 2017. STR2 model is selected to empirical analysis the nonlinear characteristics of spot price linkage of international maize price to domestic maize price. The critical values of the mechanism transformation obtained by the measurement are C1=-0.10584,C2=-0.0924, γ=1.91814. The smooth transmission effect of Corn Price on International to Domestic is decomposed into three different mechanisms, According to the smooth transition mechanism and its threshold. The results show that when the price fluctuation of domestic corn is large, the impact of international corn price fluctuation on domestic have significant nonlinear characteristics, and the characteristics and impact by the linear transformation process to the nonlinear impact with continuous smooth; With the increasing fluctuation of domestic corn price, the impact of international corn price fluctuations on domestic corn prices is more and more serious, and the lag period has become longer, and has been weakened by the influence of its own fluctuations. On this basis, we put forward some policy suggestions to stabilize the fluctuation of domestic corn price.
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