农户玉米种植多目标决策行为研究——基于一阶条件校准估计和抽样农户数据的实证分析
农民作为理性小农,其生产决策往往是基于多目标的。本文选取农户利润最大化、风险最小化和劳动力配置最优化三个目标,把土地总面积作为约束条件,利用一阶条件校准法估计各目标权重,构建了农户多目标生产决策模型,并利用该模型对山东省典型农户的玉米种植决策行为进行了分析。研究结果表明：(1)农户生产决策是基于多目标的,样本区玉米种植农户利润目标权重最大,其次是劳动力目标,风险目标权重最小；(2)农户各目标权重会随时间的变化而发生调整,通过比较2011和2014年的权重数据,发现农户对利润目标的重视程度有所提升,而对风险目标和劳动力目标的重视程度有所下降。这说明,一方面农户在玉米生产过程中越来越注重对边际利润的索取,另一方面,在非农就业发展进程的推动下,随着劳动力机会成本的上升,农户越来越不愿意把更多的劳动力投入到农业生产方面,而是更加注重农业劳动力向外转移或者走农业兼业化道路。
英文摘要:
Farmers as rational peasants, its production decision is often based on multiple targets. This article selects farmers profit maximization, risk minimization and labor configuration optimization three goals, the total area of the land as a constraint condition, the first-order conditions for calibration method is used to estimate the target weight, farmers production decision model is constructed, and by using the model of typical farmers planting decision-making behavior in shandong province are analyzed. The results show that: (1) the peasant household production decision is based on the multi-objective, sample area farmers profit target weight, the largest target followed by the labor force, minimal risk target weight; (2) the farmers target weights will occur along with the change of time adjustment, by comparing the weight of 2011 and 2014, found that farmers improve degree of attention to the profit target and the degree of attention to the target and Labour risk declined. This suggests that, on the one hand, farmers in the process of agricultural production is more and more attention to the marginal profit of demand, on the other hand, in the non-farm employment under the impetus of the development process, as the Labour opportunity costs rise, farmers are less willing to put more labor input to agricultural production, but pay more attention to agricultural labor force shift outward or concurrent-business agriculture road.
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