吉林省自2008年实施玉米临时收储政策，导致国内玉米市场出现国内外玉米价格倒挂、玉米加工企业成本骤增等问题，临时收储政策改革迫在眉睫。利用波动理论对1981-2014年吉林省玉米价格波动进行分析，结果表明：吉林省玉米价格波动相对较频繁，短周期波动明显，存在严重恶性波动。进一步分析影响吉林省玉米价格波动的因素，国家政策对吉林省玉米价格影响最大，逐年上升的“托市价格”导致玉米供给水平对玉米价格的传导是负向的，玉米生产成本、国际玉米市场和玉米需求情况对玉米价格产生正向影响。为推动玉米临时收储价格改革，稳定玉米市场价格提出建立玉米目标价格补贴制度、完善玉米市场监测预警机制、降低玉米生产成本等对策建议。
英文摘要:
Since the temporary stockpiling policy is carried out in Jilin Province in 2008, the domestic corn market is facing serious problems such as foreign corn price is higher than the domestic’s, the cost of corn processing enterprises is too high, the corn stocks is too large. Reform of the temporary stockpiling policy will become extremely urgent. This paper analyzes corn price in Jilin province from 1981 to 2014 by using the fluctuation theory. The research shows that fluctuation frequency is relatively high price of corn in Jilin Province, the short period fluctuation is obvious, and there is serious malignant fluctuation. This paper analyzes the impact factors of the price of corn in Jilin province. National policy has a great influence on the corn prices in Jilin province. Due to the temporary storage of corn prices, the supply level of corn has a negative influence on the corn price. Corn production cost, international corn market and demand situation have a positive impact on the corn price. To promote the reform of the temporary stockpiling policy and stabilize the corn market price, establishment of the target price subsidy system for corn, improve the monitoring and early warning mechanism of corn market, reduce production cost of corn are put forward.
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