PNAS:花粉散布与气候变化适应
法国图卢兹第三大学科研人员报告了一个植物对气候变化做出响应的模型，它纳入了花粉散布的效应。理解植物适应气候变化的机制对于确定哪些物种将有能力在气候变化中幸存下来具有关键作用。物种可能通过改变它们的地理范围以跟随适宜的条件以及适应新的条件从而适应一种正在变暖的气候。在一个变暖的气候中的植物进化的几个模型预测了地理范围的变化，而没有宜居温度范围的变化;然而，这些模型忽视了花粉散布的效应，而花粉散布影响着基因流。Robin Aguilée及其同事把花粉散播引入到了现有模型中从而分析它对植物对气候变化的响应的效应。根据这些模型，增加花粉散播距离会减缓地理范围变化的速度。然而，花粉散播也增加了群体适应新的温度条件的速率。这些结果提示，如果忽略了花粉散播，特别是对于那些花粉散播得比种子显著更远的物种，预测气候变化情况下植物灭绝风险或未来地理范围的尝试可能不够准确。这组作者说，花粉散播可能让植物在比没有花粉散播的情况下以更快的速率在气候变化中生存下来。
原文链接：
Pollen dispersal slows geographical range shift and accelerates ecological niche shift under climate change
原文摘要：
Species may survive climate change by migrating to track favorable climates and/or adapting to different climates. Several quantitative GENEtics models predict that species escaping extinction will change their geographical distribution while keeping the same ecological niche. We introduce pollen dispersal in these models, which affects gene flow but not directly colonization. We show that plant populations may escape extinction because of both spatial range and ecological niche shifts. Exact analytical formulas predict that increasing pollen dispersal distance slows the expected spatial range shift and accelerates the ecological niche shift. There is an optimal distance of pollen dispersal, which maximizes the sustainable rate of climate change. These conclusions hold in simulations relaxing several strong assumptions of our analytical model. Our results imply that, for plants with long distance of pollen dispersal, models assuming niche conservatism may not accurately predict their future distribution under climate change.
作者：Robin Aguilée
